Common Live Poker Variance Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker. The thing about live poker variance is that it's much slower and prolonged than what you'll normally encounter in online. The first thing the Variance Calculator does, is to run 20 samples over the amount of hands, winrate and standard deviation specified. It'll also calculate the expected winnings over the amount of hands. This number will appear as a rather boring straight and black line in the graph. Video Poker Game Variance: What is variance? While we could go into the mathematical details we will explain variance on video poker machines using real world examples. Variance is one of the characteristics that makes a big difference in the short term results between one game and another. Lets compare two popular machines. Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker. The thing about live poker variance is that it's much slower and prolonged than what you'll normally encounter in online play. With online poker, a player can swing up or down 5-10 buy ins in a single day. These types of swings are very uncommon in live poker due to the much slower.
At the beginning of the year my focus was on online poker. I set a specific goal which was that by the end of the year I would be playing 12 tables or more of 25c/50c and beating the level. After a few months of grinding I was on my way. I was feeling confident and thanks to playing tens of thousands of hands of cash game poker. plus the fact that I was working full time and earning a decent salary, I decided to go back to playing live cash game poker. Initially the results were great and for the first time in my life I kept my own and started crushing the live games. I downloaded a great poker app for recording all my sessions and was so happy to see that I was winning 7/10 sessions and making some nice extra cash every month.
Fast forward 2 months and unfortunately the results haven't continued on the same trajectory. After 24 sessions over the last few months I've won money in 54% of the games I've played and only made money in 2 out of the last 10. It is runs like this that test your resolve as a poker player and make you question both your ability and approach to the game. Last week I had another losing session, this time it was a combination of bad play on my end and very bad luck, but it wasn't the fact that I lost money that upset me, it was how I lost the money.
There is an element of poker which can't be denied and can't be ignored and that is variance. People call it different things but variance is very simple to understand. There is the norm, which for example is getting dealt pocket aces once in every 220 hands, or flopping a set with a pocket pair in your hand 11.7% of the time, and then there is what happens in reality over a certain number of hands. The difference in the norm and what happens in reality is called variance. In the long run if you are playing with a regular deck of cards in a regular poker game, you will on average be dealt pocket aces every 220 hands. This is a fact and can be proven easily with mathematical software or by looking in a large database of an online poker player.
Now for interest sake lets say that you play poker with a bunch of friends once a week and on average you play for 5 hours and see 28 hands an hour. In my made up example, you will be dealt pocket aces once every 7.8 hours on average. Now imagine that you have two amazing sessions and within 56 hands you are dealt aces 4 times. This is really positive variance for you and will make you experience a much higher win rate than usual. Unfortunately this type of variance doesn't last, remember, the stats needs to balance itself out, even though it will almost never be exact, in order for the stats to now balance themselves out, you could go over 6 sessions without being dealt pocket aces. Variance can be a bitch, especially in like poker where it takes much longer to balance things out.
My run of 10 sessions with only 2 wins made me realize this. I had been crushing the game and consider myself to have a decent edge over the average player in the game but a combination of run bad and lack of resolve on my part had resulted in a downswing that has lasted over a month and a half. During the last few sessions I have felt like a prisoner, chained to the outcome of the cards with nothing I could do, a feeling I hate even more than losing. The variance in poker is such that even a winning live cash game player can go many months breaking even or even losing money.
There are only two ways to beat variance. The first is playing through it. As long as you are a winning player and can control your losses, you will get through the bad spells and show a positive balance in the long run. The biggest problem with playing through the negative variance is that it can last a long time, hence my statement earlier that a winning player can go months without showing his true win rate. The second way to beat variance is having a massive edge over the competition. If you put Doyle Brunson in a poker game with a bunch of first timers, Doyle will almost always have a winning session, even if he is experiencing very negative variance. The reason for this is because Doyle has such a high skill level in poker that he is able to maximize his winnings and minimize his losses. In such a poker game, Doyle's skill level will be the determining factor over his results, not variance.
Acknowledging these facts has humbled me because it has shown that I'm not as good as I believe. I still find myself making horrible calls and getting desperate when the negative variance comes knocking. I think I handle it better than most but it still eats at me. It really bothers me that at this moment I could go 3-6 months breaking even or losing money, simply because the cards are falling very much against me. I can't push through it quickly because like the example I used, I'm only playing once a week and seeing around 28 hands an hour. For these reasons I have decided to take a break from live poker and concentrate on reaching the goal I set for myself at the start of the year.
Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker.
The thing about live poker variance is that it's much slower
and prolonged than what you'll normally encounter in online
play. With online poker, a player can swing up or down 5-10 buy
ins in a single day. These types of swings are very uncommon in
live poker due to the much slower pace of the game. Depending on
the type of game that you play, your skill level, your style of
play, and what limit you play, your live poker variance can mean
small swings on a monthly basis or huge swings on a weekly
basis.
Live poker players tend to worry much more about their swings
than they really should, and this is a product of the environment.
When you are playing poker online, you don't really have
the money in your hands. You don't feel the losses as much
because everything is virtual. In live poker, however, a buy in
lost means you need to reach into your pocket for another $200,
$500 or $1,000+. Diaries with time slots. These types of losses are very real and
will affect almost any player.
Variance In Live Poker Tournaments
Variance at $1/$2 NLHE Games
There are only two ways to beat variance. The first is playing through it. As long as you are a winning player and can control your losses, you will get through the bad spells and show a positive balance in the long run. The biggest problem with playing through the negative variance is that it can last a long time, hence my statement earlier that a winning player can go months without showing his true win rate. The second way to beat variance is having a massive edge over the competition. If you put Doyle Brunson in a poker game with a bunch of first timers, Doyle will almost always have a winning session, even if he is experiencing very negative variance. The reason for this is because Doyle has such a high skill level in poker that he is able to maximize his winnings and minimize his losses. In such a poker game, Doyle's skill level will be the determining factor over his results, not variance.
Acknowledging these facts has humbled me because it has shown that I'm not as good as I believe. I still find myself making horrible calls and getting desperate when the negative variance comes knocking. I think I handle it better than most but it still eats at me. It really bothers me that at this moment I could go 3-6 months breaking even or losing money, simply because the cards are falling very much against me. I can't push through it quickly because like the example I used, I'm only playing once a week and seeing around 28 hands an hour. For these reasons I have decided to take a break from live poker and concentrate on reaching the goal I set for myself at the start of the year.
Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker.
The thing about live poker variance is that it's much slower
and prolonged than what you'll normally encounter in online
play. With online poker, a player can swing up or down 5-10 buy
ins in a single day. These types of swings are very uncommon in
live poker due to the much slower pace of the game. Depending on
the type of game that you play, your skill level, your style of
play, and what limit you play, your live poker variance can mean
small swings on a monthly basis or huge swings on a weekly
basis.
Live poker players tend to worry much more about their swings
than they really should, and this is a product of the environment.
When you are playing poker online, you don't really have
the money in your hands. You don't feel the losses as much
because everything is virtual. In live poker, however, a buy in
lost means you need to reach into your pocket for another $200,
$500 or $1,000+. Diaries with time slots. These types of losses are very real and
will affect almost any player.
Variance In Live Poker Tournaments
Variance at $1/$2 NLHE Games
In NLHE games you are always going to run into more variance
than what you'll find in limit games, and for very obvious
reasons.
The lowest stakes No Limit games will have the lowest
long term swings due to:
- The overall skill levels of players
- Weak or new to the live poker scene
- Non serious players just playing for fun
Don't expect to run into a whole lot of deep thinking players in these
games. As a result of all of this, you should not have many big
down swings.
Normal Swing Range for $1/$2 NLHE
Most $1/$2 NLHE players will have normal swings in the range
of 1-3 buy ins. Though 5 buy in swings are definitely going to
happen from time to time, they aren't all that common. It's
unlikely that you'll frequently lose more than this if you are
a sound winning player. If you are going on bigger swings than
this at $1/$2, you may want to re-think your live poker strategy
altogether. In the end, it gets no easier than this limit when
it comes to live poker.
Variance at $2/$5 and $5/$10 NLHE Games
These two limits were lumped together, though they most
definitely could be separated. The reality is that a very small
percentage of the live poker population makes $5/$10 their
regular game for a number of reasons.
- There aren't many casinos with a $5/$10 or higher No Limit Texas Hold'em
- Casinos are loaded with $1/$2 tables and the sparse $2/$5 table
- Only a couple casinos in these locations will have $5/$10 running at most times of the day
If you play in Atlantic City, Las Vegas, California, or Florida,
you'll find some exceptions to this rule.
Variance In Live Poker Deuces Wild
Normal Swing Range for $2/$5 & $5/$10 NLHE
In these games, swings of 1-5 buy ins are the norm. The live
poker variance will always increase as you play higher limit games
and games with tougher levels of opponents. Variance is going to
be diminished from the perspective of buy ins when you are
playing in deeper games. For example, a $1000 max game at $2/$5
will have less buy in variance than a $500 max $2/$5 game. This
is because many players will buy in short and for under the max
which will make it more unlikely that you will be in 2k+ pots.
Dealing with Live Poker Variance
One of the biggest adjustments and learning curves for new
live poker players is being able to adapt to the constant swings
of real money. You'll likely be thinking about just how long
it is going to take for you to recoup those losses. Because live
poker is slow, you'll be left with even more time to bemoan
your losses and to contemplate how just one faded flush card
would have turned your night around. In live poker it's even
more important that you are able to let the losses roll off your
back.
Variance In Live Poker Games
A lot of players will stress out over their losses when
playing live because everything feels so real. Some of the common
reactions to negative variance include frustrated play,
angry/aggressive play, or simply running to casino games to try
and get even. Looking at things in a one session vacuum at a
time is very easy to do in live poker, but it needs to be
avoided.
The more that you realize that swings are going to
happen and that they are very normal, the more likely that you
are to be unaffected by them. If you play online, make sure to check out
our article covering online poker variance.
